On Monday (August 15th), the US dollar index continued to be under pressure after the weak US retail sales data last Friday. During the European trading hours, the US dollar index continued to fluctuate and fell; spot gold continued to be supported, and the European trading session as a whole Maintaining a wide-ranging volatility, it rose to an intraday high again in the evening after the pressure fell back. The US dollar was under pressure to support non-US currencies, the euro against the US dollar rose steadily from a low level, and the pound against the US dollar continued to fall under pressure. USD/JPY once broke the 101 mark. European stock markets rallied, and the three major US stock indexes opened higher. During the European trading hours, the Russian Energy Minister said that it is still possible to discuss the freezing of oil production when necessary, so that the OPEC informal meeting action is expected to continue to heat up next month. After the oil price fell back from the high level, it hit the bottom of the day and rebounded at night. rise. September NYMEX crude oil futures prices once again refreshed three-week high.
List of major market conditions
Foreign exchange market: During European trading hours, most of the recent US economic data is relatively weak, especially the US July retail sales data is less than market expectations, the market believes that this will become a potential obstacle to the US economic growth in the second half of this year; at the same time, the market It is expected that the inflation level in the United States may become another major obstacle to prevent the Fed from raising interest rates in the future. Under this circumstance, the US dollar index continued to be under pressure on Monday. During the European trading hours, the US dollar index continued to fluctuate from the flat, and the US dollar index is now reported at 95.51. The decline was 0.20%, and the intraday low was 95.46. The current basic trading is near the intraday low, with an intraday high of 95.81. The market needs to pay attention to the minutes of the FOMC monetary policy meeting to be announced by the Federal Reserve this week and the speech of the Fed officials. This may provide some support for the US dollar index. At the same time, the US dollar was under pressure, and non-US currencies gained certain support. The euro continued to rebound from the low level during the European trading hours. It is now at 1.1198, up 0.28%, up by 31 points, and the intraday high is 1.1205, which is 1.1155. Despite the pressure on the US dollar, the pound continued to fall against the US dollar. This week, the UK will announce a series of economic data. The market's concerns about the UK's economic outlook and the weak UK economic data will undoubtedly continue to weigh on the pound. The pound is trading against the US dollar during the European trading hours. The highs fluctuated and fell, and recorded a new low in the day. The pound against the US dollar is now at 1.2876, down about 41 points, down 0.32%, the daily high is 1.2946, and the daily low is 1.2869. USD/JPY continued to explore under the pressure of the US dollar index. It once again broke the 101 mark. It is now reported at 101.04, down about 25 points, down 0.24%, the daily low is 100.89, and the daily high is 101.47. The Australian dollar rebounded again from the Chinese stock market's surge. It is now at 0.7684, up about 32 points, or 0.42%, with an intraday high of 0.7689 and a daily low of 0.7638. The US dollar against the Canadian dollar was affected by the continued rebound in international crude oil prices. It is now at 1.2926, down 0.26%, down about 34 points, the daily high is 1.2977, and the daily low is 1.2903.
Crude oil: At the beginning of European trading hours, crude oil prices have been under pressure from high levels and once erased the intraday gains, but the Russian energy minister’s openness to frozen production has once again caused the action of the OPEC informal meeting next month to heat up. To continue to provide support for oil prices, oil prices rebounded again after bottoming out and refreshed the three-week high. The hot discussion of OPEC member states on the informal meeting next month is expected to further support the oil price rebound in the short term, but the fundamentals of the crude oil market remain weak. The market should pay attention to the US API and EIA crude oil inventory data, according to energy information. The agency Genscape said that as of August 12, the US Cushing area crude oil inventories fell by 350,000 barrels, which to some extent also provided key support for oil prices. US NYMEX September crude oil futures price is now reported at 45.55 US dollars / barrel, an increase of 2.38%, the daily high of 45.69 US dollars / barrel, the daily low of 44.38 US dollars / barrel. October Brent crude oil futures price is now reported at 47.92 US dollars / barrel, an increase of 1.50%, the daily low of 46.84 US dollars / barrel, the day high of 48.18 US dollars / barrel.
Precious metals: The recent fall in the US dollar index under the pressure of US economic data has frequently created a good opportunity for the gold rebound. The gold price in the European trading session was generally supported, maintaining a wide range of fluctuations. The spot gold price is now reported at 1342.70 US dollars / ounce, or 0.50%, within the day. The low is $1,335.85 per ounce and the high is $1,343.93 per ounce. December COMEX gold futures prices are now reported at 1374.40 US dollars / ounce, down about 4.2 US dollars / ounce, or 0.31%, the daily low of 1340.90 US dollars / ounce, the day high of 1349.10 US dollars / ounce. September COMEX silver futures prices fell back, is now reported at 19.86 US dollars / ounce, an increase of 0.81%, the intraday low of 19.70 US dollars / ounce, the day high of 20.05 US dollars / ounce.
In the stock market: On Monday, the Shanghai stock index rose sharply, easily breaking through the 3100-point integer mark, hitting a new high of more than seven months. In early trading, the Shanghai Composite Index opened higher and continued to increase in volume. It fluctuated at high levels in the afternoon. There was no sign of diving or falling in the late session, indicating that the rebound was strong, and the real estate and financial stocks were strong and led the market. The recent Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect anticipation, the loosening of the regulatory high-pressure supervision, and the approach of the state-owned enterprise reform node during the year have boosted market sentiment, which provides a rebound opportunity for the stagflation stocks in the previous period. The main force reversed the position and apparently made high volume. In the short term, it is expected that the overall trend of the stock market will be better in the future, and the situation of the previous period will be changed. However, the risk of technical callback should also be guarded. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 2.44% on Monday, up 74.53 points to 3125.20 points, the highest closing price since January 8 this year, the biggest increase since May 31; Shenzhen Securities Index closed up 2.79% on Monday, up 294.01 points, reported 10822.11 points; Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stocks closed up 3.01% on Monday, up 99.19 points, reported 3393.42 points; GEM index closed up 3.27% on Monday, up 69.37 points, reported 2193.21 points. The US stock market continued to open higher on Monday (August 15). The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened up 32.32 points, or 0.17%, to 18608.79 points. The S&P 500 index opened 3.02 points, up 0.14%, to 2187.07 points. The Nasdaq index opened up 8.85 points, or 0.17%, to 5241.74 points. European stock markets rallied on Monday, but overall still recorded a rise, the European pan-European 300 index closed up 0.10% on Monday; the UK FTSE 100 index closed up 0.5% on Monday; the German DAX index closed up 0.3% on Monday; France CAC40 index on Monday Closing rose 0.1%; Spain's IBEX index closed up 0.1% on Monday.
Crude oil market:
1. Intercontinental Exchange: As of the week of August 9, speculators increased the net long position of Brent crude oil by 30,735 contracts to 291,123 contracts; speculators increased the net short position of gasoline by 3,746 contracts to 6,586 contracts.
2. Energy information agency Genscape: As of August 12, the crude oil inventories in the Cushing area will be reduced by 359,920 barrels.
3. The Middle East Daily (Asharq al-Awsat) reported on Monday (August 15) that Russian Energy Minister Novak said that the country is negotiating with Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing countries to promote oil market stability, but he also said that It is only in 2017 that the oil market will be able to fully restore stability. In an exclusive interview published in Japan, Novak said that the door to further discussion of frozen production is still open when necessary. In terms of cooperation with Saudi Arabia, the dialogue between the two countries is making tangible progress, both at the multilateral structural framework and at the bilateral level. In terms of the oil market negotiation framework, we are cooperating with OPEC member states and non-OPEC oil producers, and we are determined to continue dialogue to achieve market stability.
4. According to Bloomberg: The Iraqi parliament approved the appointment of Jabbar Luaibi as the new oil minister.
5. According to Bloomberg: Russia is expected to cut its oil export tax by 11% to $10.9/barrel from September 1.
6. According to the Interfax news agency, Russia does not believe that the frozen production agreement can be reached at the OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers meeting in September.
7. According to Reuters, informed sources: Due to refinery maintenance, Azerbaijan’s national oil company Socar will not export petroleum products in August.
8. Morgan Stanley said that the recent rise in oil prices due to short covering by traders, but the basic fabrics in the market are still weak in the coming months. A fairly large September US crude oil put option exercise price is 40, 45 US dollars per barrel, higher or closer to the market price, causing traders to hedge against the exposure to cover exposure. Once the August 17 date expires, the impact of the initiative will fade; the comments of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) also help reverse the bearish sentiment. OPEC crude oil production record (although seasonal), coupled with increased Libyan crude oil exports, Iraq's output growth trend may continue into 2017, increased bearish signs.
inside China:
1. Baosteel Co., Ltd. 600019, the stock bar announced that in order to strengthen the strategic cooperation between Baosteel Group and CNPC, Baosteel Group, the controlling shareholder of the company, intends to hold 800 million A shares (accounting for 4.86% of the company's total share capital) through free transfer. ) Free transfer to CNPC; this free transfer will not result in changes in the company's controlling shareholders and actual controllers.
2. Reuters analysis said that the market believes that this year's thermal coal gains are mainly due to increased imports from China, but Reuters shipping data implies that 13.07 million tons of coal will arrive in China in August, significantly lower than the 18.92 million tons in July, or the sixth The lowest in a month; if the data is finally confirmed, it will be doubtful whether the coal price rise will continue.
3. Development and Reform Commission: On August 16th, 2016 (Tuesday) at 9:30 am, a regular news conference will be held to announce the macroeconomic operation and respond to hot issues. The relevant responsible comrades of the National Development and Reform Commission attended the conference and answered questions from reporters. .
4. According to Bloomberg: Nexus Capital purchased 18 million Vanke H shares on August 11, and its shareholding in Vanke H shares rose from 7.46% to 8.84%.
5. People's Bank of China: Since the beginning of this year, the growth of monetary credit has not been slow. The hypothesis that the growth rate of M1 and M2 is “scissor difference†and “liquidity trap†is far apart. The “scissor difference†between M1 and M2 cannot be used as a measure of entry. The indicator of “liquidity trapâ€; from M2, the stock market volatility in the second and third quarters of last year caused the base to rise sharply at the time, which led to some “distortion†of M2 year-on-year data in recent months, which does not represent real growth rate; The year-on-year growth rate of M2 will rebound in the month; the monthly fluctuations of money and credit data are more common. There are some special factors in this year's data. After the exclusion, the overall situation is still basically normal. The current banking system is abundant in liquidity, and the stable monetary policy will remain flexible and moderate. The growth of household sector loans this year is indeed quite prominent, mainly related to the rise of many urban real estate markets.
6. Wanda Commercial Shareholders approved the withdrawal of the listing status of H shares. According to Wanda Commercial's previous announcement, after the completion of the privatization of H shares, Wanda Commercial has applied to the China Securities Regulatory Commission for possible A-share issuance, and will continue to consider the opportunity for listing of A-shares after the H-shares are delisted. Wanda Commercial H shares resumed trading on August 16.
7. The Board of Directors of Evergrande announced that from August 8th to August 15th, the Company further acquired a total of 236 million Vanke A shares in the market through its subsidiaries. Together with the previous acquisition, the Company held the same date on this announcement. There are 753 million Vanke A shares, accounting for 6.82% of the total issued share capital of Vanke. The total consideration for the acquisition and the pre-acquisition was approximately RMB 1.457 billion as at the date of this announcement.
8. The People's Bank of China: In order to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity of the banking system, in conjunction with the MLF expiration of 237 billion yuan in mid-August, the People's Bank of China today carried out MLF operations for 15 financial institutions totaling 289 billion yuan, including 151.5 billion yuan in 6 months. The one-year period was 137.5 billion yuan, and the interest rate was the same as the previous period, which was 2.85% and 3.0% respectively.
Europe:
1. Russian Foreign Trade Bank: If oil prices continue to be at the level of 40 US dollars per barrel, it is expected that Russia's GDP will see zero growth in 2017.
2. British Prime Minister Spokesperson: The British government will not trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty until the end of 2016; all government departments are working together to achieve the most favorable Brexit agreement for the UK.
Other areas:
1. A government official familiar with the process said on Monday that the Japanese Ministry of Finance is negotiating with major domestic banks to allow banks to provide loans to the government at zero interest rates during the October/November launch. The government has been consulting with bankers about whether it is possible to submit negative interest rate bids in the tender for short-term special account borrowing projects in the Ministry of Finance. But the official said that large Japanese banks have said that it is difficult to submit negative interest rate bids in the sale, which prompted the government to ask banks to agree to the interest rate "zero threshold." Due to the sensitivity of the incident, the official did not want to be named. The current threshold for bidding rates is set at 0.001%.
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