Text / Sina Finance opinion leader column (WeChat public number kopleader) columnist Chen Zheng
Trump's choice of Tillerson as the Secretary of State is undoubtedly a wise choice. He simply picks the CEO of the oil company and lets the spokesperson of the interest group directly serve as the secretary of state, so that he will not be able to master the State Council or the "constructionist". He is not supported.
"Petroleum giant" ExxonMobil CEO Tillerson
According to Fox News, US President-elect Trump announced that he would nominate ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson as Secretary of State.
Although there have been rumors since last week that Trump is considering the possibility of "diplomatic" Tillerson but as secretary of state, after all, this dark horse is a bit black. Because he has no political experience at all, let alone diplomatic experience.
Who is Tillerson?
Tillerson, 64, a Texan, joined the "American Boy Scouts" in his early years and served as the 33rd President of the "American Boy Scouts" from 2010-2012. He graduated from the University of Texas (Austin) with a degree in Automation. After joining Exxon in 1975, he held senior positions in various positions until 2006 as CEO of ExxonMobil.
Tillerson has long been responsible for the upstream industry (oil exploration and mining operations) at ExxonMobil, with experience in the Middle East and Russia. In 2001, when Lee Raymond, the former CEO of ExxonMobil, began to consider the successor, he promoted Tillerson and Edward G. Galante, who is in charge of the downstream industry (refinery & chemical industry), to the executive side. President, due to rising oil prices year after year, Tillerson's upstream business contributed more than 80% of the company's total profits in 2002. He was appointed President of the company in 2004 and became the company's CEO in 2006. And the chairman.
Why is Tillerson?
The US Secretary of State is the top ranked among the cabinet ministers. Once the US president, vice president and speaker are unfortunately killed, he will become the leader of the country. Moreover, the United States is the only superpower in the world, and it has influence on the whole world. The Secretary of State of the United States is naturally a sweetheart!
Trump's campaign team has many of his hardcore supporters expressing interest in the post of Secretary of State. Former New York City Mayor Giuliani has repeatedly rejected two vacancies, the Minister of Justice and the Secretary of Homeland Security, saying that he is only interested in the Secretary of State. Former US ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton, former Republican majority leader Gingrich, Hong Kong’s former ambassador to China, Hong Bopei, and former Central Intelligence Director David Petraeus all expressed their desire to be Secretary of State.
Of course, Trump can't just take care of his own small team, regardless of the Republican Party's overall solidarity. Trump, as a "anti-establishmentist" presidential candidate, was co-sponsored by 122 US diplomats who wrote a joint protest letter. The Democratic Republican Party is in the diplomatic circle, but everyone with a reputation has expressed their position. He is not supported to run for the presidency, and he is also said to not enter his government.
Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has repeatedly rejected his invitation, and former Secretary of State Powell simply called him a "rogue." Therefore, Trump’s relationship with the US diplomatic community is quite poor. The Democratic diplomats will certainly not support him. The Republican diplomats are mostly Bush and do not support him.
Bilateral diplomacy is a technical job. Not everyone can represent the United States to bargain with the "old hooligans" around the world. If they are not careful, they may fall into the pit. No, Trump has not yet become president. He broke the routine of American diplomacy in the past 37 years and directly received the call from Tsai Ing-wen. Although Trump issued four tweets on Twitter to justify his actions, most domestic public opinion believes that he is not capable enough and is too ignorant of diplomacy. There is also a senator calling on Trump to find a secretary of state who understands diplomacy.
In 2012, Republican presidential candidate Romney played a "spoken war" with Trump during the campaign, but congratulated Trump immediately after Trump's victory, and high-profile Trump twice, so many critics They are optimistic that Romney will become the next secretary of state. After all, Romney’s foreign policy views represent the views of the mainstream American “constructionist†diplomats, and if Romney can join the government, he can ease the Trump and Republican The contradiction of the faction unites all forces that can be united.
However, just last week, the media report quoted the Trump team as saying that Romney had attacked Trump during the campaign, so he was very unpopular with the Trump circle. The so-called "no wind and no waves", at this time to release such a wind, at least to explain that the people inside the Trump team and Romney may not be able to cooperate very well, then Romney will be embarrassed even if he can become a secretary of state.
Last week, Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson suddenly entered Trump's line of sight. It doesn't matter who Tillerson is. The important thing is to see who he stands for.
ExxonMobil is the world's largest non-government oil and gas producer and is headquartered in Avon, Texas, USA. ExxonMobil's history dates back to the standard oil company that John Rockefeller founded in 1882 and has spanned 125 years. Therefore, Tillerson has served the Rockefeller family of companies for more than 40 years.
The Rockefeller family has always had an influence on American politics. Nelson Rockefeller served as the 41st Vice President of the United States. He is a former national security adviser and former funder of the former Secretary of State Kissinger. His younger brother, David Rockefeller, was the president of Chase Bank (now JP Morgan Chase) and a patron of Brzezinski and the Trilateral Commission. Jimmy Carter was pulled into the Trilateral Commission after he was in the middle of the process and became the President of the United States step by step.
Therefore, studying American foreign policy, if you don't understand oil interest groups, it is silly and naive. As long as the Republican Party is in power, American foreign policy makers are generally inextricably linked to oil interest groups. The 6060s and 70s were the Rockefeller family, followed by the Bush and Cheney families. Trump's choice of Tillerson as the Secretary of State is undoubtedly a wise choice. He simply picks the CEO of the oil company and lets the spokesperson of the interest group directly serve as the secretary of state, so that he will not be able to master the State Council or the "constructionist". He is not supported.
Tillerson's relationship with Russia
Due to his responsibility for the Russian business, Tillerson knew Putin as early as 1999, and he had a very close relationship with Russian oil company CEO Igor Sechin.
In 2011, Tillerson contributed to ExxonMobil's agreement with Russian state-owned oil company OAO Rosneft to develop Russia's oil reserves in the Arctic, which is worth $500 billion.
The agreement also allows Russian state-owned oil companies to invest in ExxonMobil's franchise projects around the world.
In 2013, the Russian government awarded Tillerson the “Friendship Medalâ€, one of the highest honors in the country. In 2014, Russia was sanctioned by the United States and the European Union for annexing Crimea. Tillerson made a clear statement against the economic sanctions against Russia. In June 2016, Tillerson also returned to St. Petersburg to participate in the International Economic Forum.
Tillerson's foreign policy proposition
As a businessman with no political experience, Tillerson’s position in the diplomatic field is still unclear. At present, he has expressed some opinions in some areas related to energy.
(1) Opposing US economic sanctions against Russia
As the saying goes, "Ass decides the brain", Exxon suffered a lot of economic losses because of Russia's sanctions. After the sanctions began, Exxon could not continue to exploit the oil wells in Siberia (the well has a reserve of 1 billion barrels, worth $97 billion). According to an October 2016 report by Oilprice.com, ExxonMobil lost about $1 billion after Russia was sanctioned. Therefore, Tillerson severely criticized the Obama administration’s economic sanctions against Russia in public. His main argument is that sanctions are useless.
(2) Supporting carbon taxes, but considering fossil energy is still the mainstream.
Tillerson, the CEO of the oil company, is slightly different from his predecessor, Raymond. He did not criticize “climate change is a false proposition†in public, and even expressed support for the Paris Climate Change Conference, but his statement was immediately followed by Eck. Sen Mobil’s shareholders are stunned, and 80% of shareholders voted against Tillerson’s statement on climate change. Considering the background of the Tillerson oil industry, he may continue to do nothing in climate change after he served as Secretary of State.
(3) Advocating free trade
This claim is contrary to Trump's claim, so it remains to be seen whether the US will implement a trade protectionist policy in the future.
After Tillerson became secretary of state, the most noteworthy is whether the US policy toward Russia will undergo a major turn, whether the nuclear agreement reached between the United States and Iran in 2015 will change, and whether the international energy market will usher in price fluctuations. .
Since Trump will also nominate the former US ambassador to the United Nations, George Bolton, as deputy secretary of state, it is very likely that the two will be divided. Tillerson may have more say in his Russian and Middle East affairs, and Bolton’s policy in Asia Pacific There is more say in the speech.
Controversy about Tillerson
After Trump's nomination, Tillerson officially became Secretary of State and still needs Congress to pass. Tillerson’s Secretary of State’s road may not be smooth, and there is still much controversy about his position as Secretary of State. The Democratic Party and some Republican conservatives believe that his relationship with Russia is too close and he intends to stop his nomination. Environmentalists believe that he will not act in the field of climate change after becoming a secretary of state. Therefore, he is not supported.
In addition, he holds a large number of ExxonMobil shares, and ExxonMobil's stock will continue to rise once the sanctions against Russia are lifted. Therefore, his position as Secretary of State may create a conflict of interest. It remains to be seen what changes he will make to the US foreign policy by the Secretary of State.
(The author of this article: Teacher of Beijing Foreign Studies University, visiting scholar of Harvard University Kennedy School, Ph.D.)
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