The debt is expected to turn weak

Our reporter Wang Wei

Affected by factors such as better-than-expected PMI data in February and expected increase in interest rate hike by the Fed, on March 1, the treasury bond futures market fell significantly. Analysts pointed out that the PMI data in February was much better than expected, and the market was relatively optimistic about short-term economic growth, adding a moderately stable monetary policy continuation, the promotion of financial deleveraging, the tightening of regulatory policies, and the international Fed in March. The probability of interest increases, and the adjustment of the bond market is difficult to end. In the future, the debt will turn to a weak shock.

Treasury bonds fell sharply

On Wednesday, the government bond futures market returned to the weak, and all contracts closed down.

From the face of the disk, yesterday's 10-year treasury bond futures contract T1706 opened lower and opened lower in the morning. It started to weaken at 11 o'clock in the morning. It fell to 95.15 yuan shortly after the opening, and the biggest drop was close to 0.64%, eventually falling 0.62%. Or 0.59 yuan, reported 95.175 yuan, the volume increased by more than 10,000 hands to 63,700 hands. The 5-year Treasury bond futures contract TF1706 closed down 0.35% or 0.345 yuan to 98.535 yuan, and the volume increased by more than 2,000 hands to 9271 hands.

In the industry's view, the overall weakening of Treasury futures yesterday was mainly due to three major bad ones: First, China's official manufacturing PMI in February was 51.6, which was higher than the glory line for seven consecutive months. The final value of the manufacturing PMI for Caixin in February was 51.7, also significantly higher than expected, the rebound of the two major indicators once again proved that the economic growth tends to be stable; Second, the central bank continued to carry out the reverse repurchase operation of 30 billion yuan yesterday, and realized a net return of 40 billion yuan on the same day. On the fifth day, net withdrawals put pressure on the price of government bonds. Third, the US dollar index rose sharply due to Trump’s speech and the Fed’s hawkish speech, which raised the Fed’s interest rate hike in March. The rise in US bond yields also affected market sentiment.

Subsequent weak shock

Analysts pointed out that at the beginning of the month, the overall stable and relatively strong allocation of funds fabrics still supported the bond market. However, the short-term stabilization of the economy and the tightening of supervision constituted a negative effect on the bond market. In addition, the uncertainty of the Fed’s interest rate hike, the bond market may be short-term or It presents a weak and volatile pattern, and investors are advised to exercise caution and light storage is appropriate.

Overseas, after the Trump Congress speech and some Fed officials issued "hawkish" remarks, the current federal funds rate market shows that the Fed's probability of raising interest rates in March has soared to 80%. Analysts believe that if the US GDP data in the fourth quarter of 2016 is good, it will further boost interest rate expectations, which is generally negative for the domestic bond market.

Domestically, GF Futures indicated that the early market capital and allocation power will form a certain support for the bond market. Now the allocation of power still exists, but the funding is tight, the economy is stabilizing, the regulation is tightening, and the supply of interest rate bonds is increasing. suppress. Due to the short-term and short-term factors, the treasury bond futures market is expected to show a wide fluctuation pattern, and investors are advised to remain cautious. Guotai Junan Futures analyst also believes that the previous trading market is approaching the end. Under the influence of possible negative fermentation in March, the debt or horizontal shocks will gradually weaken. The medium-term directional strategy of the bond is still based on “short-selling short”. The configuration is still based on short-term coupons.

(Editor: Wang Zhiqiang HF013)

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